William's World

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Evening Trio

Ken Timmerman: Iran Can't Be Deterred With Negotiations

AP: Space station resident fixes toilet

TriCities.com: Appalachia College Of Pharmacy Recruiting Faculty From Southwest Virginia

2004-05 High School Graduation Rates Released

Education Week and the Editorial Projects in Education Research Center have issued a report that showed a rise in Kentucky's high school graduation rate. For the 2004-05 academic year, Kentucky's rate was 71.5 percent, compared to 65.3 in 2000-01. Kentucky's rate was the 29th best and is slightly ahead of the national rate of 70.6. Nearby Virginia had a higher rate: 72.9 percent, 1.4 percent higher than Kentucky and 2.6 percent higher than the national percentage.

The graduation rate for Kentucky's 5th Congressional District, which includes Eastern and Southern Kentucky, was 68%. Below are the rates for districts in Letcher and surrounding counties:

Letcher County: 55.2
Jenkins Independent: 72.5
Knott County: 55.7
Perry County: 65.6
Hazard Independent: 89.7
Pike County: 70.5
Pikeville Independent: 65.8
Harlan County: 73.8
Harlan Independent: 45.9
Wise County, VA: 77.4
Norton City, VA: 72.7

The Herald-Leader has more on Kentucky's rates here. Click here to get the full report from Education Week.

Afternoon Trio

BBC: MTV fined by British officials over offensive language

OneNewsNow.com: CBS's controversial summer series

AP: Big Brown's hoof not a concern entering Belmont (UPDATE at 12:23pm ET: Big Brown will start from the first post position. WYMT has more here.)

Morning Trio

CBN's Brody File political blog: HISTORIC WIN

NewsBusters.org: Media Get It Wrong: 1 in 4 Teens Do NOT Have STDs

Lexington Herald-Leader: No raises for Hazard police called payback

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Oil and the Saudi Peace Offensive

From www.stratfor.com:

Oil and the Saudi Peace Offensive

By George Friedman

The Saudis are hosting an interfaith conference June 4. Four hundred Islamic scholars from around the world will be there, with one day devoted to interfaith issues. Saudi King Abdullah will open the conference, over which Saudi Shura Council head Saleh bin Huma will preside. This is clearly intended to be a major event, not minimized by the fact that Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran’s most influential leader — who heads Iran’s Assembly of Experts, the body that elects and can remove the Supreme Leader — will be attending as well. Rafsanjani was specifically invited by the Saudi ambassador to Iran last Wednesday with the following message: “King Abdullah believes you have a great stature in the Islamic world … and he has assigned me the duty of inviting you to the conference.” We would not have expected to see a meeting on interfaith dialogue even a year ago.

For its part, al Qaeda condemned the conference. Its spokesman, Abu Yahya al-Libi, said of Abdullah via videotape that “He who is called the defender of monotheism by sycophantic clerics is raising the flag of brotherhood between religions … and thinks he has found the wisdom to stop wars and prevent the causes of enmity between religions and peoples.” He went on to say “By God, if you don’t resist heroically against this wanton tyrant … the day will come when church bells will ring in the heart of the Arabian Peninsula.” In the past, the Saudis have been very careful not to push al Qaeda, or the kingdom’s own conservatives, too far.

One reason for the change might be the increasing focus by conservative Saudi clerics on the Shia, particularly Iran and Hezbollah. Twenty-two leading conservative clerics issued a statement condemning the Shia as destabilizing the Arab world and hostile to Sunnis. More important, they claimed that Iran and Hezbollah are only pretending to be hostile to the United States and Jews. In a translation by The Associated Press, the clerics said that “If they (Shiites) have a country, they humiliate and exert control in their rule over Sunnis. They sow strife, corruption and destruction among Muslims and destabilize security in Muslim countries … such as Yemen.” This view paralleled statements by al Qaeda No. 2 Ayman al-Zawahiri a few weeks back.

No Fear of the Conservatives

To begin understanding all this, we need to start with the obvious fact that the Saudi government is no longer afraid of antagonizing conservatives. It should be remembered that there was extensive al Qaeda activity in Saudi Arabia in 2003 and 2004 after the Saudis increased their cooperation with the United States. The Saudis eliminated this activity, and the royal family has done extensive work in decreasing its internal rifts as well as reaching out to tribal leaders. Nevertheless, the Saudi government has been careful not to push too far. Holding a meeting to study interfaith dialogue would appear to be crossing the line. But clearly the Saudis don’t think so.

There are three reasons for this. First, al Qaeda has been crippled inside Saudi Arabia and in the broader region. The U.S. boast that al Qaeda in Iraq is on the run is no exaggeration. Al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia and Iraq are on the run because of a split among Sunni conservatives. Conservative Sunnis have their roots in local communities. Al Qaeda is an international grouping that moves into communities from the outside. As such, they threaten the interests of local Sunni leaders who are more unlikely to share theological values with al Qaeda in the long-term, and don’t want to be displaced as communal leaders nor want to see their communities destroyed in al Qaeda’s adventures. Theology aside, al Qaeda pushed its position too far, and those Sunnis who might theoretically support them have come to see them as a threat.

Second, and far more important, there is Saudi money. At current oil prices, the Saudis are absolutely loaded with cash. In the Arabian Peninsula as elsewhere, money buys friends. In Arabia, the rulers have traditionally bound tribes and sects to them through money. At present, the Saudis can overwhelm theological doubts with very large grants and gifts. The Saudi government did not enjoy 2004 and does not want a repeat. It is therefore carefully strengthening its ties inside Saudi Arabia and throughout the Sunni world using money as a bonding agent. That means that conservative Sunnis who normally would oppose this kind of a conference are less apt to openly criticize it.

Third, there is the deepening Sunni-Shiite split. In Christian history, wars between co-religionists like Roman Catholics and Protestants were brutal, and the distrust still echoes today. The Sunni-Shiite split, like the Catholic-Protestant split, ranges across theological and national interests. Iran is the major Shiite nation. It is mistrusted and feared by the Sunni Saudis, whose enormous wealth and military weakness leaves them vulnerable to the Iranians and forces them into an alliance with the Americans.

At this particular point, where Tehran’s mismanagement of Iran’s economy and particularly its oil industry has caused it to be left out of the greatest benefits of the surge in oil prices, the Saudis are worried that internal Iranian tensions and ambitions will cause Tehran at least to increase its subversive activities among Shia in the Arabian Peninsula and in Lebanon. Hence conservative Saudi clerics have focused their attacks on Iran and Hezbollah — officially without government sanction, but clearly not shut down by the government.

Protecting the Oil Bonanza

Behind all of this, something much deeper and more important is going on. With crude prices in the range of $130 a barrel, the Saudis are now making more money on oil than they could have imagined five years ago when the price was below $40 a barrel. The Saudis don’t know how long these prices will last. Endless debates are raging over whether high oil prices are the result of speculation, the policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve, conspiracy by the oil companies and so on. The single fact the Saudis can be certain of is that the price of oil is high, they don’t know how long it will remain high, and they don’t want anything interfering with their amassing vast financial reserves that might have to sustain them in lean times should they come.

In short, the Saudis are trying to reduce the threat of war in the region. War is at this moment the single greatest threat to their interests. In particular, they are afraid of any war that would close the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large portion of the oil they sell flows. The only real threat to the strait is a war between the United States and Iran in which the Iranians countered an American attack or blockade by mining the strait. It is assumed that the United States could readily deal with any Iranian countermove, but the Saudis have watched the Americans in Iraq and they are not impressed. From the Saudi point of view, not having a war is the far better option.

At the same time, if the Iranians decide to press the issue, the Saudis would be in no position to defend themselves. It is assumed that the United States would protect the Saudi oil fields out of self-interest. But any American government — and here they are looking past the Bush administration — might find it politically difficult to come to the aid of a country perceived as radically Islamist. Should another contingency come to pass, and the Iranians — either through insurgency or attack — do the unexpected, it is in the Saudi interest to create an image that is more compatible with U.S. tastes. And of course nothing does that better than interfaith dialogue. At this point, the Saudis are only at the point of discussing interfaith dialogue, but this still sets the stage.

It also creates a forum in which to drive home to the Iranians, via Rafsanjani, the unease the Saudis feel about Iranian intentions, using Hezbollah as an example. In permitting public attacks on the Shia, the Saudis do two things. First, they placate a domestic conservative constituency by retargeting them against Shiites. Second, they are boosting the theological framework to allow them to support groups who oppose the Shia. In particular that means supporting groups in Lebanon who oppose Hezbollah and Sunni groups in Iraq seeking more power in the Shiite dominated government. In doing this, Riyadh signals the Iranians that the Saudis are in a position to challenge their fundamental interests in the region — while Iran is not going to be starting Shiite uprisings in Arabia while the price of oil is high and the Shia can be made content.

Pacifying the Region

The Saudis are engaged in a massive maneuver to try to pacify the region, if not forever, then for at least as long as oil prices are high. The Saudis are quietly encouraging the Syrian-Israeli peace talks along with the Turks, and one of the reasons for Syrian participation is undoubtedly assurances of Saudi investments in Syria and Lebanon from which Damascus can benefit. The Saudis also are encouraging Israeli-Palestinian talks, and there is, we suspect, Saudi pressure on Hamas to be more cooperative in those talks. The Saudis have no interest in an Israeli-Syrian or Israeli-Hezbollah conflict right now that might destabilize the region.

Finally, the Saudis have had enough of the war in Iraq. They do not want increased Iranian power in Iraq. They do not want to see the Sunnis marginalized. They do not want to see al Qaeda dominating the Iraqi Sunnis. They have influence with the Iraqi Sunnis, and money buys even more. Ever since 2003, with the exception of the Kurdish region, the development of Iraqi oil has been stalled. Iraqis of all factions are aware of how much money they’ve lost because of their civil war. This is a lever that the Saudis can use in encouraging some sort of peace in Iraq.

It is not that Saudi Arabia has become pacifist by any means. Nor are they expecting (or, frankly, interested in) lasting peace. They are interested in assuring sufficient stability over the coming months and years so they can concentrate on making money from oil. To do this they need to carry out a complex maneuver. They need to refocus their own religious conservatives against the Shia. They need to hem in Iran, the main Shiite power. They need to reposition themselves politically in the United States, the country that ultimately guarantees Saudi national security. And they need to at least lower the temperature in Middle Eastern conflicts or, better still, forge peace treaties.

The Saudis don’t care if these treaties are permanent, but neither would they object if they were. Like any state, Saudi Arabia has interests to pursue; these interests change over time, but right now is the time for stability. Later is later. It is therefore no surprise that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak visited Riyadh for talks this weekend. The discussions weren’t theological in nature. Mubarak shares with the Saudis an interest in an Israeli-Palestinian peace. Mubarak fears the spread of Hamas’ ideas back into Egypt and he wants the radical Palestinian group kept in its Gaza box. A large cache of weapons uncovered in the Sinai last week, including surface to air missiles, is as much a threat to Egypt as to Israel. Mubarak has been in no position to conclude such an agreement, even though he has tried to broker it. The Saudis have the financial muscle to make it happen. Clearly the Egyptians and Saudis have much to discuss.

We are not at the dawn of a new age in the Middle East. We are in a period where one country has become politically powerful because of mushrooming wealth, and wants to use that power to make more wealth. A lasting peace is not likely in the Middle East. But increased stability is possible, and while interfaith dialogue does not strike us as a vehicle to this end, hundreds of millions in oil revenue does. Peace has been made on weaker foundations.

BREAKING: One dead after Pike County mine accident

From WYMT:

"One man is dead after an accident at a Pike County mine. Teco Coal officials say the man was killed while cutting down trees at a Teco Coal Mine in Pike County. We do not have the man's name, but we do know he is a contractor for Gofer Contracting in Breathitt County."

Developing...

BREAKING and UPDATED: McCain, Obama to launch general election campaign tonight with speech in New Orleans

Matt Drudge has an exclusive excerpt from tonight's McCain's speech here. McCain will praise Hillary for her "tenacity and courage" and, according to Drudge, "will recognize Obama as the Democratic party's presumptive nominee."

UPDATE at 7:49pm ET: Drudge also has the text of Obama's speech to be delivered in St. Paul--the host city of the GOP convention. Click here to read the speech.

Evening Trio

AP tally: Obama effectively clinches nomination

AP: Microsoft exec says Live Search needs image fix

kypolitics.org: Lunsford staffers looking for work?

Faith Under Fire: Algeria

Compass Direct is reporting:

"An Algerian court gave four Christians suspended sentences and fines today for seeking to convert Muslims to Christianity, a Protestant church leader said. The case is one of several that have sparked local media and French government claims that Algeria is repressing its Christian minority, which numbers 10,000 according to conservative estimates. A court in Tiaret city, 150 miles southwest of Algiers, gave Rachid Muhammad Seghir a six-month suspended sentence and a 200,000-dinar (US$3,282) fine. He was originally charged with 'distributing documents to shake the faith of Muslims.' "

Click here to read the full article. Pray for the Christians in Algeria and the rest of the Middle East.

BREAKING: TORNADO WATCH for Central Kentucky, parts of Indiana and Ohio

A new Tornado Watch has been issued for Central Kentucky and parts of Indiana and Ohio. The watch is in effect until 7pm ET. Click here to see the list of counties in the watch. A slight risk of severe weather exists in Eastern Kentucky. I will update when necessary. Feel free to post comments.

UPDATE at 3:49pm ET: A new Tornado Watch has been issued for NE Kentucky, NW West Virginia (around Huntington), and part of southern Ohio.

Afternoon Trio

AP: Clinton set to concede delegate race to Obama (Clinton campaign later issued a release stating that the AP story is "incorrect." We'll see.)

AP: Cheney tells West Virginia joke

WKYT/AP: Severe storms move through Kentucky

Return of the Iron Curtain

BluegrassBulletin.com has an excellent article on the "duck and cover" days of the Iron Curtain and how Russia's Putin and Venezuela's Chavez are trying to bring the Iron Curtain back. Click here to read the article.

Morning Trio

Arutz Sheva: Anti-Christian 'Cleansing' Campaign Picks Up Pace in Gaza

WSAZ: KY Governor Restores Protection Rights for Homosexuals

Lexington Herald-Leader: Shooting baffles Perry community

Monday, June 2, 2008

Evening Trio

Newsmax: Is There a Shocking Michelle Obama Recording?

AP: Rock pioneer Bo Diddley dies at age 79

ABC News: 'Frasier' Star Recovering After Heart Attack

BREAKING: Former Wildcat Patrick Sparks arrested for DUI

From John Clay's Sidelines blog:

"WBKO-TV in Bowling Green is reporting that ex-UK guard Patrick Sparks was arrested for driving under the influence early May 30. He was taken to the Warren County jail at 3 a.m. and departed five hours later. Sparks, who began his college career at Western Kentucky in Bowling Green, was a senior on the 2005-06 team that lost to UConn in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. The WBKO website has a video report on the story."

You can see the WBKO video and text report here. Your thoughts?

Afternoon Trio

Compass Direct: 34 more Christians arrested in Eritrea

Asheville Citizen-Times: Appalachia best defined by those who truly know it

AP: Judge orders return of polygamist group's children

Faith Under Fire: Britain

Earlier on the "Morning Trio" post, I mentioned the plight of two Christian evangelists who were told by police to not preach in an Islamic neighborhood in Birmingham, England. The Daily Telegraph has a great article here.

While Christians are told in Scripture that they are to face trouble in the world, I am shocked that Britain, which is an historically Christian nation, would allow restrictions on evangelism. But I am not surprised because British culture has gone pluralistic in the past half-century. Your thoughts?